Webmistress, do you have any measure of how many of these new members are bogus?
Unfortunately, apart from the obvious clues in usernames and email addresses, there is absolutely no way to determine genuine members from bogus ones. Such is the nature of the Internet. In fact, is is impossible to even define what a genuine member is based upon registration information alone. All I can say is that current estimates suggest that 90% of all email is junk or malware. Given that forum spamming is very similar to email spam and uses similar posting techniques, I think it would be reasonable to suggest that a very large number of 'new members' are also spammers. Beyond that, I cannot say.
Even if only a quarter of these are genuine, we should still ask - "Why are they not posting?" You do not have to join in order to read the posts, so presumably they are joining with the intention to post, yet something is holding them back.
I do not think that there is anything significant in this forum that stops people from posting. It would seem valid to suggest that those people who do join do so with the intent of posting but experience suggests that it isn't actually that simple. Some people will join because they suspect that there may be additional boards to read that are only available to members (it is a fairly common feature on forums) but are not interested in posting themselves. When they join and discover that this is not the case, there is no mechanisem by which they can cancel their forum membership, so they simply leave and never return.
However, experience also suggests that a very large number of people wil join a forum with the intent of possibly posting something one day - but 'one day' never comes. They find the answer to their question has been already answered or lose interest in the subject or just "never get around to it". They may read avidly for a few days or weeks and then drift away for no reason other than something else demands their time or interest.
I do agree with you that a forum needs a steady flow of both contributions and new blood if it is to remain healthy long term. But the fact is that, for very every one poster, there may be 1000 readers. It is the nature of the medium and is not confined to web forums. It is a behaviour that extends to Usenet (newsgroups) and beyond the Internet into fora that existed long before we had the Web. In every case, it is a suprisingly small core of very active contributors that keep discussion groups alive whilst the great silent majority are content to merely read or listen. Despite almost 10 years of managing a range of different web fora across a whole range of topics, I have never come across anything that can significantly reverse this behaviour.
Do we now drop this issue as it has become a meaningless exercise or do we take it as a warning that unless this forum is welcoming and has interesting and well structured content it will continue to slide into total disuse? I have a terrible fear that this forum has already fallen below the critical point where there is just no point in logging on because there is nothing worth reading!!
As we have only had this particular forum platform for less than a year, I do not have any accurate statistics on seasonal fluctuations within the forum itself. What I can say is that this forum is consistently the most popular area of the IGKT web site - a position it has retained, unchallenged, for about 4 years. Currently the web site has around 10,000 'visitors' per month. The forum is currently being 'viewed' around 33,000 times per month. In comparison, the second most popular area (the online gallery) accounts for around 15,000 views. Overall, the amount of traffic is steadily but slowly increasing across the site - again a trend that has persisted for the past few years.
Incidentally, I did note that most common key phrase that resulted in a visit to the site over the past 3 months has been 'monkeys fist'. Whilst it would be unwise to place to much significance on traffic statistics (or any statistics, for that matter), it does suggest that the prime reason for site visits is to answer a question. It may well be that, in this sense, the forum actually achieves the purpose well. People find what they are looking for and go away happy. I appreciate that this doesn't help in terms of trying to get more new posts but I think it is worth bearing in mind that the forum exists to provide an information resource as well as discussion area.
Five days ago Colin Younger posted a request for help teaching knots to his Cub Scout group. Gordon immediately offered him off board help (well done Gordon) but has not followed up with any news as to how Colin's challenge is progressing. Willeke followed by posting what I believe is the most insightful assessment of the problem I have ever read and probably the best advice ever given. And then...... NOTHING.
Nothing, despite this being possibly the most important topic for the future of this forum. A post so important it almost warrants a sub forum of its own. Where are the prolific posters with their valuable input? Where are the IGKT officials with their sage like advice? Is it possible that we are witnessing the last dying flickers of this forum? I hope not.
Before you get too carried away, it's worth considering that the poster in question may simply have got everything he needed. Not all help takes place in the public eye.
Unless there is a seasonal explanation for this decline, then we need to take action to 'fan the embers' and although it is silly to share our precious 4 posts a day amongst more boards, I am going to suggest that TPTB consider using this oportunity to spark some interest in the forum. I am going to suggest you consider a slight renaming of Chit Chat and two new boards.
If the forum is going through a perfectly natural quiet spell (or even if it is a decidedly un-natural one), I'm at a loss to see how spreading fewer posts over more boards would help. In this situation, the only solution I have ever seen that does work is for people (and, invariably this means the forum regulars to start with) to post more quality messages. You don't get discussion going by dividing the conversational groups into different rooms. You get it going by introducing more inviting topics for discussion.